18 Aug 2020
MAHSC Seminar Series: Professor Arpana Verma and Dr Thomas House – ‘Understanding a pandemic. The mathematical modelling and epidemiology of COVID-19’
Manchester Academic Health Science Centre (MAHSC), part of Health Innovation Manchester, brings together world leading academic and NHS partners to drive health research forward.
The MAHSC Seminar Series will showcase the great discovery and clinical science being undertaken within Manchester and its impact on the health of the local population.
The series will give a local platform to the nationally and internationally renowned scientists of MAHSC, to share their work with clinical, non-clinical and university colleagues but also crucially members of the wider community seeking insight into innovations in the delivery of healthcare.
In this third seminar, held on 15 July 2020, Dr Thomas House, Department of Mathematics and Professor Arpana Verma, Clinical Professor of Public Health and Epidemiology discuss the importance of using models in research and studies.
Dr House discussed their involvement in COVID-19 and showed comparison data from China and Europe. Dr House and his team looked at household bubbles and the support that can be offered.
The team also looked into hospital length of stay with local NHS such as Manchester Foundation Trust, using multi-state survival analysis to show how to plan scenarios. Their research shows that its not impossible to reach a zero-case state for outbreaks, but it will take time to get to this outcome involving using a lot of resources.
Professor Arpana Verma discussed the collaborative work underway in epidemiology across Greater Manchester of Coronavirus.
MAHSC and the University of Manchester set up a Rapid Response Group where Professor Verma and her team have been able to work within their own faculties and public health systems along with the other universities in Greater Manchester. Highlighting the need for collaborative research to investigate the public health, health and social care, transmission, response and recovery underpinned by good epidemiology is essential in the fight against the pandemic.
The key here is to highlight the work of frontline workers from health and social care through to transport, education and all the core services that have kept services going during the lockdown, leaving no-one behind.
Professor Arpana Verma said: “The phenomenal response to this pandemic couldn’t have predicted the speed of the spread in terms of it being a brand new disease. One of the key things we have learnt from our qualitative work as well as looking at the data from the care homes themselves, is how amazing the response has been and being able to really capture all of this good practice is what we owe everyone to do and get the message out.”
For details of all previous seminars, please visit our website here.
Watch the session
‘Understanding a pandemic. The mathematical modelling and epidemiology of COVID-19’